Starsim

  • Starsim

    Starsim is a fast, flexible agent-based disease modeling framework. It is an open-source toolbox for simulating the spread of multiple diseases among agents via dynamic transmission networks. Publications Research areas Vaccine-preventable diseases Women’s reproductive, infant, and child health

  • HPVsim: An agent-based model of HPV transmission and cervical disease

    In 2020, the WHO launched its first global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer, outlining an ambitious set of targets for countries to achieve over the next decade. At the same time, new tools, technologies, and strategies are in the pipeline that may improve screening performance, expand the reach of prophylactic vaccines, and…

  • Modeling COVID-19 vaccination strategies in LMICs considering uncertainty in viral evolution and immunity

    Vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were developed in record time, but their distribution has been highly unequal. With demand saturating in high-income countries, many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) finally have an opportunity to acquire COVID-19 vaccines. But the pandemic has taken its toll, and a majority of LMIC populations have partial immunity to COVID-19…

  • The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study

    Much of the world’s population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape.…

  • Modelling the impact of reopening schools in early 2021 in the presence of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant in the UK

    Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the alpha (also known as B117) variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 4, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, the question of when and…

  • Modelling the impact of reopening schools in the UK in early 2021 in the presence of the alpha variant and with roll-out of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2

    Following the resurgence of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK in late 2020 and the emergence of the alpha (also known as B117) variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, a third national lockdown was imposed from January 4, 2021. Following the decline of COVID-19 cases over the remainder of January 2021, the question of when and…

  • Preventing a cluster from becoming a new wave in settings with zero community COVID-19 cases

    Background In settings with zero community transmission, any new SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks are likely to be the result of random incursions. The level of restrictions in place at the time of the incursion is likely to considerably affect possible outbreak trajectories, but the probability that a large outbreak eventuates is not known. Methods We used an…

  • Risk of sustained SARS‑CoV‑2 transmission in Queensland, Australia

    We used an agent-based model Covasim to assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARSCoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. The model was calibrated using the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Then, using the calibrated model, we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate…

  • Susceptibility of zero community transmission regimes to new variants of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study of Queensland

    Objectives To assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. Design We used an agent-based model Covasim and the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Using the calibrated model we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate due to leakage…

  • The changing value of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic

    The Omicron wave has left a global imprinting of immunity which changes the COVID landscape. In this study, we simulate six hypothetical variants emerging over the next year and evaluate the impact of existing and improved vaccines. We base our study on South Africa’s infection- and vaccination-derived immunity. Our findings illustrate that variant-chasing vaccines will…