Respiratory Pathogens

  • Vaccine-preventable diseases

    Vaccines are one of the most effective public health interventions, and an accelerating pace of innovation in vaccine development promises to deliver a broadening range of novel or improved vaccines in coming years. Despite this, there are many challenges facing control efforts for vaccine-preventable diseases (VPD). Coverage of basic childhood vaccines through routine healthcare systems…

  • Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia

    Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including…

  • Modeling COVID-19 vaccination strategies in LMICs considering uncertainty in viral evolution and immunity

    Vaccines against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were developed in record time, but their distribution has been highly unequal. With demand saturating in high-income countries, many low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) finally have an opportunity to acquire COVID-19 vaccines. But the pandemic has taken its toll, and a majority of LMIC populations have partial immunity to COVID-19…

  • The changing health impact of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic: a modeling study

    Much of the world’s population had already been infected with COVID-19 by the time the Omicron variant emerged at the end of 2021, but the scale of the Omicron wave was larger than any that had come before or has happened since, and it left a global imprinting of immunity that changed the COVID-19 landscape.…

  • Rural prioritization may increase the impact of COVID-19 vaccines in a representative COVAX AMC country setting due to ongoing internal migration: A modeling study

    How COVID-19 vaccine is distributed within low- and middle-income countries has received little attention outside of equity or logistical concerns but may ultimately affect campaign impact in terms of infections, severe cases, or deaths averted. In this study we examined whether subnational (urban-rural) prioritization may affect the cumulative two-year impact on disease transmission and burden…

  • Susceptibility of zero community transmission regimes to new variants of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study of Queensland

    Objectives To assess the risk of sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 in Queensland (Australia) in the presence of high-transmission variants of the virus. Design We used an agent-based model Covasim and the demographics, policies, and interventions implemented in the state. Using the calibrated model we simulated possible epidemic trajectories that could eventuate due to leakage…

  • TB Hackathon: Development and Comparison of Five Models to Predict Subnational Tuberculosis Prevalence in Pakistan

    Pakistan’s national tuberculosis control programme (NTP) is among the many programmes worldwide that value the importance of subnational tuberculosis (TB) burden estimates to support disease control efforts, but do not have reliable estimates. A hackathon was thus organised to solicit the development and comparison of several models for small area estimation of TB. The TB…

  • The changing value of vaccines in the COVID-19 pandemic

    The Omicron wave has left a global imprinting of immunity which changes the COVID landscape. In this study, we simulate six hypothetical variants emerging over the next year and evaluate the impact of existing and improved vaccines. We base our study on South Africa’s infection- and vaccination-derived immunity. Our findings illustrate that variant-chasing vaccines will…

  • A modeling approach for estimating dynamic measles case detection rates

    The main idea in this paper is that the age associated with reported measles cases can be used to estimate the number of undetected measles infections. Somewhat surprisingly, even with age only to the nearest year, estimates of underreporting can be generated at the much faster, 2 week time-scale associated with measles transmission. I describe…

  • Feasibility of measles and rubella vaccination programmes for disease elimination: a modelling study

    Background Marked reductions in the incidence of measles and rubella have been observed since the widespread use of the measles and rubella vaccines. Although no global goal for measles eradication has been established, all six WHO regions have set measles elimination targets. However, a gap remains between current control levels and elimination targets, as shown…