Malaria

Mass campaigns with antimalarial drugs: a modelling comparison of artemether-lumefantrine and DHA-piperaquine with and without primaquine as tools for malaria control and elimination

Background Antimalarial drugs are a powerful tool for malaria control and elimination. Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) can reduce transmission when widely distributed in a campaign setting. Modelling mass antimalarial campaigns can elucidate how to most effectively deploy drug-based interventions and quantitatively compare the effects of cure, prophylaxis, and transmission-blocking in suppressing parasite prevalence. Methods A…
From puddles to planet: modeling approaches to vector-borne diseases at varying resolution and scale

Since the original Ross–Macdonald formulations of vector-borne disease transmission, there has been a broad proliferation of mathematical models of vector-borne disease, but many of these models retain most to all of the simplifying assumptions of the original formulations. Recently, there has been a new expansion of mathematical frameworks that contain explicit representations of the vector…
Characterization of the infectious reservoir of malaria with an agent-based model calibrated to age-stratified parasite densities and infectiousness.

Background Elimination of malaria can only be achieved through removal of all vectors or complete depletion of the infectious reservoir in humans. Mechanistic models can be built to synthesize diverse observations from the field collected under a variety of conditions and subsequently used to query the infectious reservoir in great detail. Methods The EMOD model…
Dynamics of the Human Infectious Reservoir for Malaria Determined by Mosquito Feeding Assays and Ultra-Sensitive Malaria Diagnosis in Burkina Faso

Background Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes are essential for malaria transmission. Malaria control measures that aim at reducing transmission require an accurate characterization of the human infectious reservoir. Methods We longitudinally determined human infectiousness to mosquitoes and P. falciparum carriage by an ultrasensitive RNA-based diagnostics in 130 randomly selected inhabitants of an endemic area. Results At least…
Defining the Relationship Between Infection Prevalence and Clinical Incidence of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria

In many countries health system data remain too weak to accurately enumerate Plasmodium falciparum malaria cases. In response, cartographic approaches have been developed that link maps of infection prevalence with mathematical relationships to predict the incidence rate of clinical malaria. Microsimulation (or ‘agent-based’) models represent a powerful new paradigm for defining such relationships; however, differences…
The effect of malaria control on Plasmodium falciparum in Africa between 2000 and 2015

Since the year 2000, a concerted campaign against malaria has led to unprecedented levels of intervention coverage across sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding the effect of this control effort is vital to inform future control planning. However, the effect of malaria interventions across the varied epidemiological settings of Africa remains poorly understood owing to the absence of…
Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models

Background The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed…
Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies

Mass-screen-and-treat and targeted mass-drug-administration strategies are being considered as a means to interrupt transmission of *Plasmodium falciparum* malaria. However, the effectiveness of such strategies will depend on the extent to which current and future diagnostics are able to detect those individuals who are infectious to mosquitoes. We estimate the relationship between parasite density and onward…
Fun with Maths: Exploring Implications of Mathematical Models for Malaria Eradication

Mathematical analyses and modelling have an important role informing malaria eradication strategies. Simple mathematical approaches can answer many questions, but it is important to investigate their assumptions and to test whether simple assumptions affect the results. In this note, four examples demonstrate both the effects of model structures and assumptions and also the benefits of…
An Environmental Data Set for Vector-Borne Disease Modeling and Epidemiology

Understanding the environmental conditions of disease transmission is important in the study of vector-borne diseases. Low- and middle-income countries bear a significant portion of the disease burden; but data about weather conditions in those countries can be sparse and difficult to reconstruct. Here, we describe methods to assemble high-resolution gridded time series data sets of…