COVID-19

  • Controlling COVID-19 via test-trace-quarantine

    Initial COVID-19 containment in the United States focused on limiting mobility, including school and workplace closures. However, these interventions have had enormous societal and economic costs. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of an alternative control strategy, test-trace-quarantine: routine testing of primarily symptomatic individuals, tracing and testing their known contacts, and placing their contacts in quarantine.…

  • Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation

    Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the…

  • Covasim: an agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions

    The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes country-specific demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks…

  • Viral genomes reveal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Washington State

    The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 has gravely impacted societies around the world. Outbreaks in different parts of the globe are shaped by repeated introductions of new lineages and subsequent local transmission of those lineages. Here, we sequenced 3940 SARS-CoV-2 viral genomes from Washington State to characterize how the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington State (USA)…

  • Modelling the impact of reducing control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in a low transmission setting

    Objectives: To assess the risks associated with relaxing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19)‐related physical distancing restrictions and lockdown policies during a period of low viral transmission. Design: Network‐based viral transmission risks in households, schools, workplaces, and a variety of community spaces and activities were simulated in an agent‐based model, Covasim. Setting: The model was calibrated for…

  • Effects of SARS-CoV-2 P.1 introduction and the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on the epidemiological landscape of São José Do Rio Preto, Brazil

    The emergence of the new Brazilian variant of concern, P.1 lineage (Gamma), raised concern about its impact on the epidemiological profile of COVID-19 cases due to its higher transmissibility rate and immune evasion ability. Using 272 whole-genome sequences combined with epidemiological data, we showed that P.1 introduction in São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo,…

  • Chapter 10 – Mathematical modeling as a tool for policy decision making: Applications to the COVID-19 pandemic

    The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlighted the importance of mathematical modeling in advising scientific bodies and informing public policy making. Modeling allows a flexible theoretical framework to be developed in which different scenarios around spread of diseases and strategies to prevent it can be explored. This work brings together perspectives on mathematical modeling of…

  • Cell phone mobility data and manifold learning: Insights into population behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic

    As COVID-19 cases resurge in the United States, understanding the complex interplay between human behavior, disease transmission, and non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic could provide valuable insights to focus future public health efforts. Cell-phone mobility data offers a modern measurement instrument to investigate human mobility and behavior at an unprecedented scale. We investigate mobility data…

  • Covasim: an agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions

    The COVID-19 pandemic has created an urgent need for models that can project epidemic trends, explore intervention scenarios, and estimate resource needs. Here we describe the methodology of Covasim (COVID-19 Agent-based Simulator), an open-source model developed to help address these questions. Covasim includes demographic information on age structure and population size; realistic transmission networks in…

  • COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support

    Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct…