Fig 3. Observed (black line) versus simulated median (red), and 95% interquantile range (IR, pink region) of reported (per 100,000 people) annual dengue incidence in the Yucatán population.
Population immunity for the fitting era is established by running the model for 100 years (“priming” and “DDT” eras). Empirical case and serotype data are not available prior to 1979 for Yucatán. The model is fit to per capita incidence (1979–2013), and we consider possible interventions during a 20-year projection period (2014–2033; baseline without intervention shown).